Navigating Uncertain Weather

Dr. Louis du Pisani, an experienced agricultural consultant, highlighted the precarious situation these farmers face. He explained that the next few weeks are pivotal. If the rain arrives in time, farmers could expect a manageable season; however, a delayed start could lead to significant challenges. By February, any rain may arrive too late, as cooler temperatures would hinder grass growth, making it difficult for farmers to prepare adequately for winter.

“Ideally, we need around 200mm to 300mm of rain soon. Unlike farmers in drier regions, many farmers in these high-rainfall areas lack drought contingency plans because they generally receive ample rainfall,” Dr. du Pisani explained.

Farmers in the arid and semi-arid parts of the country, on the other hand, may have a slightly longer window for rain to arrive. These regions often maintain feed reserves from previous seasons, offering some buffer against unpredictable weather patterns.

Adapting to a Wait-and-See Approach

Given the uncertainty surrounding weather patterns, Dr. du Pisani advises farmers to exercise patience and avoid hasty decisions. “Now is not the time to act impulsively. The current situation can go either way, and making major decisions without clearer information could lead to significant regret. Waiting until the first of January in high-rainfall regions, or even a month longer in semi-arid areas, is a more prudent approach.”

Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist, provided a glimmer of hope, noting a recent shift in weather patterns. Light rain has begun to fall in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Free State, signaling potential relief for some farmers. Additionally, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts improved rainfall over the coming week in eastern provinces, with predictions of 70mm to 150mm of rain across parts of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, eastern North West, and sections of Limpopo.

Heatwaves and Drought-Like Conditions Persist

Despite these promising forecasts, large swathes of South Africa’s interior have endured severe heatwaves in recent months. An intense, prolonged heatwave in early December set new temperature records across several provinces. Coupled with below-average rainfall, these conditions have contributed to drought-like scenarios and depleted catchment water levels.

Unfortunately, SAWS anticipates that the central interior will continue to experience dry conditions for the next week, with only isolated thunderstorms providing limited relief. Van den Berg expressed particular concern for areas in the Northern Cape, which have suffered from insufficient rainfall over the past two seasons. While some precipitation is expected in the short term, it will likely be insufficient to significantly improve the dry conditions.

However, not all is bleak. Lucerne and table-grape farmers with access to irrigation water in the Northern Cape may still enjoy a productive season.

The La Niña Factor: Hope for Late Summer Rain

Interestingly, recent climate data indicates a shift toward a weak La Niña state. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has entered values characteristic of La Niña, which could bring favorable weather during the second half of the summer rainfall season, from mid-January to March. Though the strength and duration of this La Niña event remain uncertain, early signs point to improved rainfall prospects.

According to SAWS, the seasonal outlook predicts above-normal rainfall for the northeastern central and coastal areas, while other parts of the summer rainfall region may experience below-normal precipitation. Meanwhile, minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than normal nationwide, except for the southern coastal areas, where below-normal temperatures could prevail.

Global Climate Trends and the Bigger Picture

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported a 55% probability of transitioning from neutral conditions to La Niña between December and February, with a likely return to ENSO-neutral conditions by April. Despite this, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that even if La Niña emerges, its cooling effect will be insufficient to counterbalance the record-breaking heat driven by greenhouse gases.

Saulo added that 2024 began with El Niño and is on track to be the hottest year on record. Even in the absence of strong El Niño or La Niña events earlier in the year, extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe, underscoring the growing impact of climate change on global agriculture.

Looking Ahead: Preparing for the Unknown

For South African livestock farmers, the coming weeks will be critical. With weather patterns showing signs of improvement but remaining unpredictable, a cautious approach is advisable. Staying informed, maintaining flexibility, and leveraging available resources will be key to navigating this challenging period.

As we move further into the summer, continued monitoring of rainfall patterns and climate forecasts will help farmers make more informed decisions. The hope is that timely rainfall will arrive, allowing farmers to secure the fodder needed for their livestock and ensure a more stable season ahead.